Netbook Statistics – Comparing 2008, 2009 and 2010
Display Search’s Q409 quarterly forecast of notebook shipments is out – filled with numbers related to the portable PC market (shipments and revenues) for 2008 and 2009, and Display Search’s forecasts for 2010.
Netbook sales Y/Y (2008/2009) soared despite the recession.
- Mini-notes (netbooks) saw a 103% growth Y/Y with millions of units shipped up to 33.3 million in 2009 (from 16.4million in 2010)
- These sales resulted in tremendous growth in revenue – 72% Y/Y from $6.65 bn in 2008 to $11.40 bn in 2009.
Notebook sales weren’t as fortunate
- 136.3 million notebooks shipped out in 2009 – only a 5% increase Y/Y.
- The 5% increase in shipments wasn’t able to result in revenue flow. Revenue from notebook sales is down 7% from last year (down to $98 bn from $110 bn)
Surge in netbook sales wasn’t enough to life the overall category out of the red
- Despite a 16% increase in shipments across the category of All Portable PCs (includes both netbooks and notebooks), revenue is down 12% compared to 2008… from $117.09 bn to $109.40 bn
Forecast: 2010 revenues look grim for entire Portable PC category
Price tags will continue to decline across the category, putting a visible (painful) dent in revenue.
- Netbooks will see a 0.1% decline in revenues Y/Y (2009-2010).
- Notebooks will see a 1% decline in revenues for the same period (down to $96.6 bn from $98.0 bn)
- Overall market will see a 1% decline in revenues.
- ‘Desktop replacement PCs’ was the only segment that resulted in a huge growth (21%), but this wasn’t enough to bump up overall category figures.
Forecast: 2010 shipments will increase as always
People still need their computers
- Netbooks will see a dismal 19% increase in shipments (when compared to 2008/2009’s 103% jump). Display Search expects shipments of 39.7 million machines, up from 33.3 million in 2009.
- Notebooks will see a similar 16% jump, which translates into a lot more: 136.3 million in 2010, up from 158.1 million in 2009.
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Digitimes: Asus to cut down netbook production in 2010
Or so the article claims. Apparently Asus plans to focus on traditional notebook sales an will be limiting the amount of netbooks they manufacture in 2010 to 6million. Samsung will be shipping either 7-10 million notebooks in 2010. If the later is true, 7-8 million will be netbooks – and Samsung will surpass Asus in number of netbooks sold in 2010. Exceeding both of them might be Acer which plans on selling 12 million netbooks next year.*
The question however is not necessarily who’ll sell the most, but who will make the most. By losing its foothold on the netbook market, Asus might see a better ROI (return on investment) – less resources going into manufacturing low cost netbooks + more earnings/notebook sold. Or, Acer & Samsung will play the volume game and win out that way.
Honestly, looking at the amount prices have dropped, I suspect neither Asus, Acer nor Samsung will return to the revenues of yester-year. Computers are fast becoming commodities (if they aren’t already!), and prices will continue to follow the declining path they’ve already started on.
*Couldn’t find out how many netbooks Asus sold in 2009 – but the company managed 500,000 netbook sales in November 2009. Keep in mind November is a very shopping-focused month with holidays coming around the corner and Black Friday sale.s
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