Future of Netbooks
2009 has been a great for people interested in netbooks. Prices are dropping as competition increases, netbook makers are coming up with better, faster netbooks with features like built in 3G, GPS, TV tuners, swivel touch screens. Now we’re looking at the release of Windows 7, ARM and Android based netbooks and the ever elusive hint of an Apple Mac-netbook.
Here’s my outlook on where the market is headed. After all, with all the rains, typhoon warnings and monsoons, it’s time for a forecast that’s not about the weather!
Netbooks are becoming more widespread, more familiar.
10 million netbooks were sold in 2008 and research analysts speculate that 25 million will be sold in 2009. The good news is that more people are being exposed to these little devices in coffee shops and on airplanes. The potentially bad news: people who bought netbooks probably won’t likely buy another one until late 2010/ 2011. (Via GigaOM )
We should see a surge in netbook software, software and hardware upgrades and accessories.
Netbook makers created a whole industry after all. Software, hardware and accessory makers have to be looking at netbook owners with a gleam of $ signs in their eyes. We may even see magazines dedicated solely to netbooks. We already have blogs that are!
Windows will have the majority market share.
The majority of netbooks are being sold run on Intel processors and use Windows (XP and Vista) as their OS. A few weeks ago, we saw news that most netbooks with Linux were being returned. And now Windows 7 is almost here (October 22).
HP is giving out free updates to Mini 2140 owners, Microsoft is selling upgrades at half price (for all ye XP owners!), and most Vista-based computers came with upgrade options. Unless Apple comes out with a netbook, Microsoft has no competition. Too bad they’re too big and corporate to earn much of a profit.
And no, Android netbooks are not even close to competition right now. The learning curve is too steep.
Intel will also hold majority share when it comes to processors
According to IDC, Intel had an 84.3% market share in the “mobile PC processor” segment in Q1 2009. (AMD has 15% and VIA had 0.7%.)
Intel also has a new processor (Pine View) coming out for netbooks in September. Chances are it’ll be awesome. More on the Pine View in another post.
Netbooks are misunderstood.
According to an NPD survey…
- 59% netbook buyers choose netbooks for portability, but only 40% take them outside the house. That’s 60% that use netbooks as cheap PCs at home.
- 65% of 18-24 year olds expected their netbook to have similar/better functionality than PCs. Only 27% found their netbook performance exceeded their expectations.
- 60% of netbook buyers overall thought netbooks have the same functionality of PCs/notebooks.
(Via GigaOm)
This may lead to a boost in the CULV market.
CULV or “consumer ulta-low-voltage” devices are growing in hype, and Intel is really pushing this category of ultra thin notebooks.
And the question: Netbooks. Small notebooks, or big smart phones?
Especially with the Nokia-ARM-Android mix we might be seeing in the near future. Plus, we’re all spoiled and expect better, faster, stronger netbooks that do ten tasks at once and feed the dog.
On that note, I would love to see an iPhone in the Vaio P form factor. Phone meets Laptop meets Apple. Love it.
Will Netbooks survive? The question, rather, is what will they evolve into?
Secondary home PCs for the kids? Affordable devices for schools (like the Dell Latitude)? Portable devices for students (thee Eee PC family) and for business folk (HP Mini 5101)? Tablet PCs (Asus T91) and travel guides (the Mio line)?
As more and more netbooks find their niche features and diffuse into society and create more opportunities for use, they won’t even be competing with each other anymore. Each of them will fulfill a specific need.
Netbooks are becoming so cheap. How can they go away?
The average price for a standard netbook (9”, 160 GB hard drive, Windows XP) last year was $450. Now, you can get a 10” 160 GB with faster specs for anywhere between $330 to $400. With the recession continuing steadily, and with growing populations in third world countries, how can these cheap devices not do well?
Bottom-line.
It seems a lot of the netbook industry’s success will be tied to companies’ marketing abilities and the features the netbooks ship with. At the rate they’re going, I believe they’re here to stay.
Thoughts?
Related posts
Filed under: Netbook Thoughts